2025
Banning state-level AI regulation is highly unpopular
Back in June of this year, the U.S. Senate considered an amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill that would place a ten-year moratorium on state-level AI regulation. This attempt to deregulate AI failed after serious popular backlash, with the senate voting against the amendment 99-1. But lately, there is talk of adding a last-minute measure to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would preempt state AI laws for an as-yet-unknown period of time. IFS ran a poll on whether Americans support this move. The response: a strong majority oppose the measure (57%), with less than a fifth of Americans showing support.
Young men are dropping out of the labor force
In the past fifty years, the share of men ages 25 to 40 who are not in the labor force—neither working nor looking for work—has more than doubled, rising from 5% to 11%. Men without college degrees have been hardest hit; over this time period, the share not in the labor force increased 165%, compared to a 79% increase among college educated young men. Family breakdown is not least among the reasons for this exit from work. Young men from non-intact families are 36% less likely to hold down a full-time job by the time they hit their mid-twenties.
Four ingredients to a happy marriage
What makes for a happy marriage? In a joint IFS-Wheatley Institute study, Jeffrey Dew, Brad Wilcox, and Jason Carroll surveyed 2,000 married men and women to find out. Looking across 11 different variables, the study identified four key predictors for a blissful marriage: high commitment, a protective spouse, joint religious service attendance, and frequent date nights. Among other findings, the study noted that wives were nearly 400% more likely to be very happy with their marriage when they responded that their marriage is more important to them than almost anything else. Men who frequently attended religious services with their wife were over 200% more likely to be very happy with their marriage.
Sex recession among young adults
Young adults are having less sex than in years past. From 1990 to 2010, between 10% and 15% of young adults ages 18 to 29 reported having no sex in the prior year. But into the 2010s, the share of sexless young adults began to rise. In 2024, nearly a quarter of young adults reported having no sex in the prior year. This hockey-stick shaped trend accords with what Jonathon Haidt identified as the “Great Rewiring” of 2010 to 2015. As children and young adults have become more attached to their screens, they’ve become less engaged with those around them. The result: less dating, mating, and marriage.
High school girls are less certain about pairing up
Young Americans are increasingly unsure about their future dating and marriage plans. According to the annual Monitoring the Future study, a falling share of 12th grade girls are certain they would like a lifetime partner. Between 1976 and 2010, about 65% of 12th grade girls responded “definitely yes” when asked if they would you like a mate for most of their life. But with the Great Rewiring of the 2010s, young girls have become less sure. For the years 2020 to 2024, the share who responded “definitely yes” was just 48 percent. The responses “probably yes” and “not sure,” on the other hand, each rose 7 percentage points from 2010 to the present.
Remote working moms spend more time with kids
The share of moms who are working full-time has been increasing for decades. And in recent years, many moms have chosen to work remotely. An IFS study found that moms who work full-time remotely spend on average 2.4 more hours per day with their young children compared to moms who work full-time in-person. This compares to the 4.6 additional hours part-time working moms spend with their kids, and 6.3 additional hours stay-at-home moms spend with their young children per day, compared to full-time moms working in-person. For many, remote work means more time with kids, and maybe even more kids overall.
Americans prefer single-family homes
For young adults, homeownership has been falling for the last few decades. Do Americans simply prefer to live in apartments now? It doesn’t look like it. A 2024 IFS survey found that while 24% of adults under the age of 55 live in an apartment, only 8% consider an apartment ideal. The vast majority, 79%, prefer a detached single-family home. Yet just 59% live in one. This disparity is due, in large part, to a growing home affordability crisis. With home ownership being a major priority for aspiring parents, a pro-family policy agenda must include easier access to single-family homes.
Young adults are spending less time with friends
In post-pandemic America, young adults are spending a record amount of time alone. But even before the pandemic, young adults began spending less time with friends. In 2010, young adults ages 18 to 29 on average spent 12.8 hours a week with friends. By 2019, that number nearly halved, falling to 6.5 hours a week. The pandemic exacerbated this trend with a low point of 4.2 hours a week with friends in 2020. And while we’ve seen a slight increase since, socializing has not nearly recovered. Today, young adults spend just 5 hours a week with friends. Lingering effects of pandemic-era isolation are certainly at play, but the role of technology cannot be ignored.
Ratio of working-age adults to seniors is falling
An aging population brings new challenges to the economy. In the U.S., the number of working-age adults relative to the retirement age population, called the old-age dependency ratio, is shrinking. In 1950, there were 7.5 working-age adults for every adult age 65 and over. In 2024, there were just 3.4 working-age adults for every senior. Census projections expect that the U.S. will have less than two working-age adults for every senior by 2100. With so many government programs fiscally dependent on a sizeable working population, low birth rates could spell trouble for the economy.
Republican counties have higher birth rates
Partisanship runs deep these days. But it’s not just ideas that divide the country. Increasingly, family formation is becoming a wedge between Left and Right. Following the 2024 election, Lyman Stone and I found that Republican-leaning counties are having more children than Democratic counties, and the gap is growing. The top 20% most Republican counties had a total fertility rate of 1.76, compared to the most Democratic counties which had a total fertility rate of just 1.37 children per woman. If these trends hold, we may see the family divide become even further entrenched in American politics.
