2026
Despite Grade Inflation, Children From Married Families Do Better
Has grading leniency in primary and secondary schools across the US leveled the playing field for students of different family backgrounds? This was one aspiration of the remarkable grade inflation observed in the last quarter of a century. But rather than resolve the discrepancy, grade inflation from 1996 to 2019 has brought with it an even greater gap between children from married-intact families and children from unmarried and non-intact families, growing from 9% to 13%. Needless to say, family stability still matters – arguably more than ever – for children’s success in school.
Unmarried Mothers Receive The Most Welfare
Clinton’s 1996 welfare reform, the PRWORA, turns 30 this year, and a recent IFS report on working women shows the significant – but short-lived – effects it had on overall welfare use among mothers of young children. A considerable decrease in the late 1990s has been followed by far greater increases for married and unmarried mothers alike, though the share of unmarried mothers receiving welfare remains strikingly higher. In 2025, over two-thirds of unmarried mothers with children under 5 received welfare benefits. This rise is a possible explanation for the surprising downward trend in full-time employment for unmarried mothers since 2000, which contrasts a consistent upward trend for married mothers.
Monetary Incentives Increase Fertility
Do cash-for-kids policies actually work? In a 2025 IFS research brief, a review of the literature showed a positive relationship between policy generosity and estimated effect on birth rates. Generally, a benefit increase worth 4% of GDP per capita per child is associated with a 1% increase in birth probabilities. It’s not only these academic studies that demonstrate the effectivity of cash incentives. Looking at 17 countries who recently implemented major cash-based pronatal policies, we found more evidence that cash-for-kids does indeed work. On average, the policies increased fiscal transfers to families by about 0.7% of GDP and increased fertility rates by about 9%.
2025
Job Quality Is Driving The Class Difference In Married Family Rates
Working class men used to be more likely than college educated men to be married with children. But in the late 1980s this trend flipped, with the share of working class men in married families dropping a staggering 25% over the next 40 years, compared to an 11% decrease for college educated men. What’s the driving force behind this difference? It turns out that the quality of a man’s job plays a significant role. In fact, a good wage, job stability, and access to benefits explained nearly 80% of the class difference in married family formation rates: After controlling for these variables the adjusted difference was only 1.78% between college educated and working class men.
Many Married Mothers Work More Than They'd Like
Do ideal work arrangements reflect reality? For many married mothers with young children in the home, the answer is unfortunately no. This is especially the case for liberal married mothers with young children, with 73% currently working full time and only 46% thinking this arrangement is ideal, according to a 2025 IFS/Wheatley survey. Many married mothers have a great desire for part time work, with around 40% in each ideological group saying it would be the ideal arrangement, per IFS research. However, only about half of the conservative and moderate part time dreamers (20% and 19%, respectively), and less than a quarter of liberals (10%), are able to make their preferred part time work arrangement a reality.
Mothers Have The Clearest Sense Of Purpose
If you consult the popular media, you might think that children are more of a burden than a blessing. But research consistently shows mothers pulling ahead on a number of well-being metrics. One IFS report with the Wheatley Institute found that mothers are more likely to have a clear sense of purpose in their lives. Among women ages 25 to 55, 28% of married mothers strongly agreed that their life has a clear sense of purpose, and 25% of unmarried mothers reported the same. This compares to 14% of married childless women and 16% of unmarried childless women who report having a clear sense of purpose in life. These findings square with research that shows, across the world, parents are more likely to report having a meaningful life.
Rich men tend to marry ambitious women
In many online circles, there’s an idea floating around that ambitious women are less attractive to men. But this turns out to be a myth. IFS Senior Fellow Lyman Stone found that men with higher incomes tend to marry high-income women. This throws water on the idea that rich men, who have more options in the dating pool, tend to pick lower income and less educated women. Instead, men and women partner with their peers in education, income, ambition, and social class broadly.
Divorce is falling for today’s newlyweds
“Half of all marriages end in divorce.” That’s the statistic thrown at young men and women to caution them about the risks of getting married. And in decades past, it was true. IFS found that just over half of first marriages formed in the 1970s ended in divorce, and about half from the 1980s would likewise dissolve. But the divorce rate has fallen since then. Marriages from the 2000s are looking about as stable as those from the 1960s. Marriages from the 2010s are, so far, stronger on average than marriages from any other decade since the 1950s. If current trends hold, around 40% of first marriages formed since 2000 will end in divorce.
Banning state-level AI regulation is highly unpopular
Back in June of this year, the U.S. Senate considered an amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill that would place a ten-year moratorium on state-level AI regulation. This attempt to deregulate AI failed after serious popular backlash, with the senate voting against the amendment 99-1. But lately, there is talk of adding a last-minute measure to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would preempt state AI laws for an as-yet-unknown period of time. IFS ran a poll on whether Americans support this move. The response: a strong majority oppose the measure (57%), with less than a fifth of Americans showing support.
Young men are dropping out of the labor force
In the past fifty years, the share of men ages 25 to 40 who are not in the labor force—neither working nor looking for work—has more than doubled, rising from 5% to 11%. Men without college degrees have been hardest hit; over this time period, the share not in the labor force increased 165%, compared to a 79% increase among college educated young men. Family breakdown is not least among the reasons for this exit from work. Young men from non-intact families are 36% less likely to hold down a full-time job by the time they hit their mid-twenties.
