Cohort changes in fertility patterns and the role of shifting priorities
February 17, 2026
Low fertility rates in high-income countries defy traditional explanations based on a quality/quantity trade-off in the demand for children and the opportunity cost of women’s time. Analysing fertility in Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the US, this column argues that fertility decisions also depend on the range of socially accepted lifestyle and consumption options and on norms surrounding work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure. Reversing the low-fertlity trend will require significant societal changes that make parenthood more compatible with modern adult life.
It is well known that fertility rates have fallen to historically low levels across high-income countries. Data from the United Nations (2024) show that from 1960 to 2023, the total fertility rate – a measure that captures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime, assuming current age-specific fertility rates – among OECD countries fell from 3.29 children per woman to 1.54 (Bloom et al. 2024). The fact that all OECD countries other than Israel now have a total fertility rate below 2 has rightly captured the attention of scholars, policymakers, and the public. Fertility rates this low imply that countries are on track for slower population growth, substantial population ageing, eventual population decline, and a host of associated social, fiscal, and economic challenges.
