Baby bonuses won’t solve the birthrate problem
May 4, 2025
Most of this year’s high school graduating class was born 18 years ago. In 2007 American families welcomed more than 4.3 million new babies. They have been welcoming fewer ever since. Only about 3.6 million were born in 2024, roughly the same as a year earlier, when US births hit a new low. In other words, the Class of 2025 is the largest we are likely to see for the foreseeable future. The US baby bust is well underway, with all the grim social and economic changes that implies.
Demographic decline has been inevitable since the mid-1970s. That was when the nation’s fertility rate (the average number of children born to American women over their lifetime) dropped below 2.1, the number required, all other things being equal, to keep a population from shrinking. So far, thanks to continued immigration and the longevity of older generations, the total population of the United States has not fallen. But it is only matter of time before the number of Americans peaks and turns south — just like the number of graduating high school seniors.
