The Partisan Divide in Sinking US Birth Rates
November 2, 2025
A few decades back, a Wall Street Journal editor named James Taranto posited what he called “the Roe Effect.” The idea was spawned by data showing a correlation between a woman’s political views and her views and actions regarding abortion. Taranto argued that, over time, conservative women and families would have more children and liberal woman, accepting abortion, would have a lower birth rate, and this would lead to diminishing popular support for legal abortion.
Writing in 2005, Taranto said, “The Roe Effect … refers specifically to the nexus between the practice of abortion and the politics of abortion. It seems self-evident that pro-choice women are more likely to have abortions than pro-life ones, and common sense suggests that children tend to gravitate toward their parents’ values. This would seem to ensure that Americans born after Roe v. Wade have a greater propensity to vote for the pro-life party—that is, Republican—than they otherwise would have.”
