Divorce Rate at a 50-Year Low

New research from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS), published in The Atlantic today, suggests marriage is making a comeback. Specifically, divorce is down and the share of kids being raised in married families is up, especially among black families.  

1. Divorce is down 

Reprinted with permission from The Atlantic 

• For Baby Boomer couples who married in the 1970s and 1980s, it looks like at least 50% of them will end up divorced.  
• But as marriage has become more selective, with more educated, affluent, and religious couples becoming more likely to put a ring on it than the general population, marriage has been stabilizing in recent decades with the divorce rate hitting a 50-year low.  

Writing in The Atlantic today Brad Wilcox says: 

“The idea that marriage will end in failure half the time or more—well entrenched in many American minds—is out-of-date. The proportion of first marriages expected to end in divorce has fallen to about 40 percent in recent years.” 

2. The share of kids in married families is up 

• Because divorce is down and non-marital childbearing has leveled off since 2009, the share of children being raised in married-parent parent families is rising. 
• In 2012, the share of kids raised in a married parent family hit bottom at 64%. Since then, it has risen to 66%, according to the Current Population Survey.   

3. The marriage comeback is strongest for black families 

• Over the last decade, the divorce rate has fallen markedly for lower-income and black married couples.  
• Partly as a consequence, the percent of black children in married families rose from 33% in 2012 to 39% in 2024. 

Does this represent a comeback for marriage? 

Writing in The Atlantic, Wilcox says, “as an anchor for American family life, marriage looks like it’s coming back. Stable marriage is a norm again, and the way that most people rear the rising generation.” In other words, any marriage comeback seems limited to families with children. 

The positive trends above do not, however, extend to adults. Only time will tell if this means marriage is making a comeback for men and women in the United States.  

ENDS 

Brad Wilcox, “Are We Witnessing a Marriage Comeback?” The Atlantic, July 29, 2025 

Brad Wilcox, Grant Bailey, Lyman Stone, Wendy Wang, “Is Marriage Back? Divorce is Down, Family Stability is Up,” Family Studies, July 29, 2025 

Notes 

1. Brad Wilcox is Melville Foundation Jefferson Scholars Foundation University Professor of Sociology and Director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, Future of Freedom Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The author of Get Married: Why Americans Should Defy the Elites, Forge Strong Families and Save Civilization (Harper Collins, 2024), Wilcox studies marital quality, marital stability, and the impact of strong and stable marriages upon men, women, and children. The author and editor of six books, Wilcox has written for scientific journals such as The American Sociological Review and The Journal of Marriage and Family, and The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, and National Review. 

2. The Institute for Family Studies is a think tank based in Charlottesville, VA, that conducts research on marriage, family life, and the welfare of children.