The decline of marriage goes hand in hand with falling fertility rates, simply because married women have a much higher fertility rate than unmarried women. In 2020, the birth rate was 81 per 1,000 married women ages 15-44, but just 39 per 1000 unmarried women of the same age. When fewer women are married, fewer babies are born. In fact, about half of the decline in fertility since 2008 can be attributed to changes in marital composition, according to an analysis by Lyman Stone. Simply put, other things being equal, if the marriage rate had remained the same since 2008, the U.S. fertility rate would have been around replacement level.

Data from a recent YouGov survey by the Institute for Family Studies and Wheatley Institution echoes this pattern between marriage and fertility, as I show in a new IFS research brief. Among the reasons cited by respondents for not having the number of children they desire, “I am still looking for the right spouse/partner” tops the list. Fully 44% of Americans ages 18-55 who desire (more) children cite this reason, compared with 36% who cite financial reasons, and 25% who point to their lifestyle and career as hurdles to having children.

Key findings from this brief include:

• Having a child on their own is NOT an option for many Americans. Among adults ages 18-55 who desire children but are still looking for the right spouse or partner, 42% say that they are willing to have children on their own even if they can’t find the right partner, while 58% say no.
• The group saying no to parenthood is growing. Close to a quarter of adults (23%) are currently childless and say they do not hope or desire to have a child someday. Men, younger adults, and adults without a college education are more likely to be in this group, so are Democrats and non-religious Americans.
• Government assistance will likely boost fertility in the U.S. Nearly half of parents who desire more children (49%) and 43% of childless adults who want children say that a child allowance, such as $300 per child per month, will make them more likely to have children. Even among the childless adults who desire no children, 12% indicate that their likelihood of having a child will increase if a child allowance were provided.
• The child allowance gets stronger responses from Democrats and religious Americans, the two groups that do not always overlap. Some 27% of Democrats say that a child allowance will make them more likely to have children, as do 26% of adults who attend religious services on a regular basis. In comparison, this government intervention could be less effective for Republicans, Independents, as well as non-religious Americans.