Research Shows New Data on Divorce Risk
July 24, 2025
The lifetime risk of divorce is not 50%, as so many assume.
This is the finding from a new sophisticated research analysis from the careful scholars at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS). They explain that the hope of a lifelong marriage is “no longer a coin toss.” The analysis was conducted by Yifeng Wan, a postdoctoral research associate at the University of Virginia. He explains, “My best estimate is that about 42% of first marriages today will eventually end in divorce if current patterns persist.”
