Falling Birthrates Are A Mystery
May 20, 2026
When I first encountered the data on falling fertility rates, I was confident that I could explain them. The problem, surely, was that other people had failed to embrace my preferred political program. As both a conservative and a mother, I assumed that if we all embraced a culture that was more pro-family—and particularly pro-motherhood—then birth rates would shoot up. It all aligned perfectly with my ideological commitments. How neat.
I’ve since realized that this is how most people respond to this issue because the data on fertility rates tend to function as a Rorschach test. Conservatives blame the collapse of marriage rates and the rise of feminism. Progressives blame a lack of affordable child care and fathers failing to do enough housework. Housing advocates blame property prices. Environmentalists blame the climate crisis. Everyone has an explanation that supports a pre-existing political agenda.
