What Policies Are Needed to Bolster Success Sequence Initiatives?

The “success sequence” is getting a lot of media attention these days, and that’s a good thing. If you’ve missed it, the success sequence involves the following steps: 1) graduate from high school; 2) secure employment; 3) marry and then have children (if you choose)—in that order. Those who follow this early life course sequence have only a 3% chance of ending up in poverty. And children of parents who have followed this sequence are at much lower risk of experiencing family instability, with its associated barriers to healthy development and well-being. Also, those children are much more likely to repeat the success sequence in their own young adult lives. I’m a fan of this idea, and the Utah Marriage Commission will be helping to support Utah Governor Cox’s policy initiative to teach the success sequence to more Utah youth and young adults. 

But I’m also sensitive to fair concerns and honest critiques about teaching the success sequence. I read one in the New York Times recently. In it, guest opinion writer Anna Louie Sussman raised an important, relevant issue: the breakdown of dating and the marital formation system has made it hard for women who desire marriage to find a marriageable man. She references several recent scholarly books making the case for marriage, such as Melissa Kearney’s The Two-parent Privilege. “But harping on people to marry from high up in the ivory tower,” she complains, “fails to engage with the reality on the ground that heterosexual women from many walks of life confront: that is, the state of men today. . . A more granular look at what the reality of dating looks and feels like for straight women can go a long way toward explaining why marriage rates are lower than policy scholars would prefer.” Now, I think she is offbase on some points in her essay. But she highlights a crucial problem with the success sequence: the whole marital formation system in our society is in disrepair. And President Biden’s big initiative to repair the nation’s infrastructure does not include rebuilding the onramps to healthy, stable marriages. 

Sussman actually is more sympathetic to the plight of men than those two brief sentences above imply. She acknowledges that men are growing up in a world that almost seems designed to make it hard for them to . . . well, grow up and be ready for the pinnacle adult roles of partnering and parenting, as Brookings Institute senior scholar Richard Reeves has documented in his recent book, Of Boys and Men.  

Unfortunately, those like me who extol the merits of the success sequence can sometimes treat it more like a banner waving in a parade than a serious, long-term, multi-dimensional, challenging policy initiative. And we can shine the spotlight mostly on the “marry then have children” parts rather than the “get an education and get a full-time job” parts. I want to urge here a deeper commitment to the full range of needed policy actions signaled by the success sequence banner. I’m all for promoting the personal and public benefits of marriage; it’s at the heart of my professional work. But let’s also dedicate ourselves to public efforts to make for more marriageable men (and women). 

Let’s start with the first element of the success sequence: get an education. We know the value of education to enhancing our economic and social well-being. But we also know that our education system struggles and too often fails to meet the high-minded goals we need it to accomplish. And this is especially true today for boys and young men. For the full success sequence to work to build stronger families and minimize child poverty and social inequality, we need a serious, sustained, innovative, bipartisan policy agenda at local, state, and federal levels to build an education system that really works for the 21^st century. And on the personal level, parents must do all in their power to reinforce the value of education for their children.

A little more modern shine on this retro institution we call marriage could be a good thing. 

The second element of the success sequence is employment. Here, too, young men are struggling. Yes, some of this is self-inflicted, with self-isolation and burrowing into empty distractions of gaming, pornography, etc. And again, we need parents involved, upholding the value of honest employment. Good parenting still means launching emerging adults and not subsidizing their unemployment lifestyle. But the public dimension of this employment problem is bigger than the personal and can’t be ignored. We need tried-and-tested—as well as innovative—policies to bridge the gap from schooling to employment for young adults or else the success sequence will be blocked for far too many.

I’m not promoting here specific policies in order to fix our education and employment engines. These are complex social systems and there are smarter voices to listen to for this. But we need to dedicate ourselves to making progress on these issues if we are truly committed to promoting the success sequence. Effective education and employment policies need to be bundled with success sequence initiatives, not sold separately. And may I add another necessary “fix it” to this policy agenda? The evidence is increasing that unaffordable housing is a major barrier to young people deciding that they are ready for marriage. Like most, I think a free enterprise economic system is best, or at least the best among all worse systems. But housing is a fundamental human issue and capitalism is falling down on the job. We need some smart policy options to incentivize the housing industry to increase the availability of affordable housing for younger and middle-class Americans, or we will struggle to convince young adults that the success sequence is more than a quaint fairy tale. 

The third element of the success sequence is choosing to marry. I trust that as we dedicate ourselves to improving our education and employment systems, many more women will find good men who meet their standards for building a family and life together. And there are other steps we can take to bolster the institution of marriage. I agree with other policy scholars that we should fix federal and state policies that create unintentional disincentives to marry, especially for less affluent Americans. Also, I’ll put in a plug for all states to discount or waive marriage license fees for engaged couples who invest in premarital counseling or education (and effectively implement the policies). Such a policy sends a valuable signal about both the importance of marriage and the smart way to enter this crucial societal institution. And I’m still a fan of federal and state policies supporting relationship education for couples who want to strengthen their relationships.

We need tried-and-tested—as well as innovative—policies to bridge the gap from schooling to employment for young adults or else the success sequence will be blocked for far too many.

While I’m at it, it would help if Hollywood and Big Media would cut marriage a break and mention its merits more often. I hope Travis and Taylor are madly in love, and he puts a ring on her finger soon and the media becomes obsessed with covering another royal wedding and happily-ever-after ending (as Ross Douthat with the New York Times recently opined). A little more modern shine on this retro institution we call marriage could be a good thing. 

One last complaint: let’s back off the cultural prohibition of early marriage. Society has seen dramatic changes over my adult lifetime. And current research is finding that marrying in the early- and mid-20s doesn’t seem to be the risk factor for a marital train wreck that it was a generation or two ago. These early marriages now are as happy and healthy as later marriages with pretty small differences in divorce risk. The societal and family pressures to marry early and “become an adult” have dissipated. In fact, the pressure seems reversed now; don’t marry too young. Parents tell their children to prioritize work and money and worry about marriage later. But those who marry in their early- and mid-20s these days are counter-cultural creatures, swimming against the cultural currents (and parental admonitions). They are marrying young because they want to, not because they need to or are expected to do so. Empirically, their chances of success are as good as those who marry at the culturally-approved time. Let’s celebrate and support their choices. 

The success sequence is both a public and private concern. I’ve emphasized here important broader public policies we should support to go “all-in” on a success sequence initiative. To clarify, however, I do not think that people’s personal choices can be realized only when we have an optimal socio-economic environment. We are human agents with moral and ethical powers to choose, even in challenging environments. Awareness—basic knowledge—of how to build a successful life will help young people make better choices. So, let’s teach the success sequence to youth and young adults and encourage them to make the private choices to follow this wise path to personal and family success. But let’s bundle this important relationship education initiative with effective policies that will make young adults—especially men—more marriageable and reduce the barriers to the end goal of that sequence. 

Alan J. Hawkins is a professor of family life at Brigham Young University.