The crisis in birth rates is spiritual
July 13, 2026
Every few weeks brings a fresh diagnosis of America's baby bust: unaffordable housing, the cost of childcare, stagnant wages, fewer marriages, rising infertility, the widespread use of contraception and abortion, and the simple opportunity cost from higher education and career opportunities. This week added another suspect as recent studies found that the arrival of the iPhone in 2007 may explain up to half of the decline in birth rates among Americans under 25. At the very least, the arrival of the smart phone tracks the decline in births. And, while each of these factors explain some aspect of the issue, there is no single reason why birth rates have sunk to record lows. Nonetheless, two groups still buck the odds, having children at much higher rates than their peers across the nation—religious Americans and conservatives.
Drawing on Pew’s 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study, a recent Institute for Family Studies report found that church attendance predicts a state’s fertility rate better than most factors, accounting for “57 percent of the variance between state-level total fertility rates.” The result is that red states, which tend to be more family friendly with affordable housing and higher rates of religiosity, are bringing forth more kids than blue states.
