Research or Advocacy? A Mathematica Report on the Success Sequence Falls Short

Throughout our 30-plus years working in adolescent health promotion and education—specifically, marriage and relationship education and sexual risk avoidance education (SRAE)—we have observed its many iterations and evolutions. Marriage and relationship education and SRAE programs support young people's skill development, mindfulness, and intentionality toward family formation, including promoting the benefits of delaying sexual activity. One of the tools these programs leverage is known as the Success Sequence Theory. This rich body of sociological research posits the benefits of the following key benchmarks in sequence: graduation, working full-time, and marriage before having children. Success Sequence research continues to demonstrate the benefits of following these critical benchmarks through multiple replication studies. 

I (Lisa) remember a 19-year-old female client from 30 years ago. She was a teen parent with one child, expecting another child from a different biological father. At the time, she was gaining job skills working in our office. She asked one day if she should allow another man, not either child's biological father, to move in with her and her children. My response was, "I want you to know something. You are worth waiting for."

The alligator tears came streaming down her cheeks as she sat for a few minutes in my office to process what I had just shared with her. Then she asked, "Why hasn't anyone ever told me that before?” It’s a question you hear a lot from students when you teach in this field. The answer to that question requires more time than this essay allows. However, one reason became apparent at the 2023 National Conference for Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention, sponsored by the Family and Youth Services Bureau, an Administration for Children and Families division. 

At the conference, a session was presented on the most recent research on the Success Sequence. It was presented by Mathematica, a policy research organization that has done many robust program evaluations that have benefited youth program providers. However, their most recent report and conference presentation, "What Influences the Success Sequence and Economic Self-Sufficiency? Findings from a Mixed-Method Study," appears to be more of an advocacy piece than their typical rigorous research, as it conveys misleading interpretations of the Success Sequence's association with positive economic outcomes. In our view, the researchers significantly (and perhaps purposefully) misled the audience. 

The APP presentation included this 2021 finding and comment (Slide 9), followed by their conclusion (Slide 24):

• "Those who completed the four milestones in the prescribed order had a 61% chance of being economically self-sufficient." (Slide 9)
• "Our research on the success sequence demonstrates that while it works for some, success sequence alone cannot determine one's economic success." (Slide 24)

A misleading framing was again apparent on slides 22 and 23 of the APP presentation. 

• "31 percent of the sample who followed the success sequence pathway did not achieve middle-class status." (Slide 22)
• "39% of the sample who did not follow a success sequence pathway still achieved middle-class status." (Slide 23)

These two numbers seem identical, but the difference is enormous. These findings mean that 69% of the sample who followed the success sequence achieved middle-class status, and only 39% of those who didn't follow it also achieved middle-class status. The difference is 30 percentage points, showing that following the success sequence gives you a much higher chance of being in the middle class.

In truth, both the 2021 replication study and the 2023 replication study confirm the efficacy of the Success Sequence Theory because most (61% and 69%) of the young people reached middle-class status when they followed these benchmarks in sequence. Why did the Mathematica research team use the word some? Some means less than 50 percent. The framing of this study and the public presentation are slanted against using the Success Sequence tool in SRAE and marriage education programs. 

To be clear, we do not think the Success Sequence is a magic wand for us to wave over youth to miraculously reach self-sufficiency. We know this issue is complex, as is all research in the social sciences. However, Mathematica concludes in the body of the report that "All of these findings demonstrate that the success sequence alone does not determine economic self-sufficiency." 

This conclusion is true in that following the success sequence “alone” does not determine economic success; however, it is disturbingly misleading. The actual conclusion of this study should state, “previous research shows that the success sequence works for most youth, while our present study fills a gap by detailing some alternative paths for others.” 

Furthermore, the Mathematica researchers offer another misleading recommendation to SRAE educators: 

Based on the findings in this report, curriculum developers and program providers should acknowledge that communicating with youth about the success sequence and its association with economic self-sufficiency may not be sufficient for youth to follow it. 

This recommendation statement by Mathematica is exactly why educators who do teach the success sequence often hear from young people: “Why hasn’t anyone told us this before?”

Regardless of where youth find themselves, they deserve and desire clear messages about the benefits of striving for the success sequence benchmarks. SRAE and marriage education programs should continue to sensitively encourage all youth to start working toward these vital developmental markers wherever they may find themselves.

Dr. Lisa Rue has over 30 years of experience working with adolescents. She has developed both risk reduction and risk avoidance prevention programs for adolescents and emerging adults. And she served as Principal or Co-Principal Investigator on 10 teen pregnancy prevention program evaluations. Dr. Jerry Regier is the founder of the Family Research Council, and a former senior official in three presidential administrations and in two gubernatorial administrations. He presently teaches doctoral students in public policy at Liberty University.