States Should Incorporate the ‘Success Sequence’ into Family Life Education

There are too many barriers that stand in the way of the American dream for black and Hispanic young adults — from failing schools to unsafe streets. Unfortunately, Covid made these barriers worse, as wrong-headed lockdown policies in many of our public schools deepened learning gaps between white children and black and Hispanic children, and spiraling crime rates ended up having a devastating, disparate effect on minority neighborhoods. These are among the barriers that stand in the way of black and Hispanic young adults aiming to realize the American dream, one built around a good job, a decent income, a strong family, and a meaningful life.

But there is a path that leads to the dream and away from poverty for them. This path is called the “Success Sequence,” and black and Hispanic young adults who have followed it are markedly more likely to be flourishing financially today, according to a recent report from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for Family Studies. The sequence entails three steps: (a) getting at least a high-school degree, (b) working full-time, and (c) marrying before having children. Young men and women who follow all three steps are flourishing financially by the time they hit their thirties.

But some argue that this path is less relevant for black and Hispanic young adults, as well as for young people who were raised in poor families. Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution, for instance, argued that “even when black Americans do follow all three norms, their economic prospects are worse than whites.” Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute believes that until we address structural “issues [such] as a biased criminal justice system, a failing public school system, and barriers to job creation, let alone systemic racism and gender bias, the success sequence seems more sideshow than main event.” The implication is that the success sequence is of less or little value to black and Hispanic young adults and those from poor families.

Although we do not minimize the importance of continuing to tackle these structural barriers—with policies such as school choice—we also think young adults deserve to know the truth about the sequence. Stunningly, racial and ethnic gaps in poverty are basically nonexistent among young adults who followed all three steps: If they follow the sequence, only 4 percent of blacks and 3 percent of Hispanics are poor by their mid 30s, and the share is 3 percent for whites, according to our new analysis of data that track a cohort of young adults (Millennials) from their teenage years to adulthood in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

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