The Blue State Family Exodus

(Charlottesville, VA.)—For Immediate Release

Contact: Chris Bullivant 

Families are leaving blue states–like California, Minnesota, and New York–for red/purple states like Texas, Florida, Idaho, and Arizona.

Blue states like California, Minnesota, and New York are heralded for their progressive family policies. But they are not magnets for families with children, according to a new Institute for Family Studies (IFS) research brief. In fact, families with children are markedly more likely to leave blue states for red and purple states than vice versa.

In tracking net family migration trends (families moving out and in of states) across the United States, the IFS brief finds:

• Blue states (voted Clinton/Biden 2016, 2020) lost 213,000 families in 2021-2022 (0.7% net decline)
• Red states (voted Trump 2016, 2020) gained 181,000 families (0.6% net gain) in 2021-2022
• Purple states (Voted for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates in 2016, 2020) gained 38,000 families in 2021-2022 (a 0.4% net gain)

The states that have lost the largest number of families, 2021-2022, include: California (D), New York (D), Illinois (D), Washington (D), Oregon (D) 

The states that have gained the largest number of families, 2021-2022, include: Texas (R), Florida (R), Georgia (P), Arizona (P), South Carolina (R).*

“Plenty of pundits and professors think blue states do a better job on family policy than red states,” said Brad Wilcox, senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies and professor of sociology at the University of Virginia, “But what is striking about family migration data is that ordinary families are leaving blue states for red and purple states. This suggests that key features of the red state model–more affordable homes, lower taxes, job growth, school choice, and a family-friendly culture–are more important for parents than the family policies championed by Democratic lawmakers and progressive advocates. It also suggests that many Republican governors and state legislators are achieving greater practical success than their peers at the federal level.”

Lyman Stone, senior fellow at IFS and co-author added, “Families with children don't like to move—it disrupts their children's lives. When they do so, it's a strong signal that they believe life somewhere else is a whole lot better than where they are. The persistent success of red states in drawing families away from blue states, then, is a good indicator that families see much better opportunities in those red states.”

READ:
Lyman Stone, Brad Wilcox, “The Blue State Family Exodus. Families are Migrating to Red and Purple States”, The Institute for Family Studies, September 2024

ENDS.

Notes.

1. *Net migration 2021-2022, authors analysis of the American Community Survey. (D) Democratic, (R) Republican, (P) Purple (states that flipped between the two parties in the last two presidential elections.)