Pronatalist Policies Work

(Charlottesville, VA.)—For Immediate Release

Contact: Chris Bullivant 

Pronatalist Polices Work and Have Done for a Century. 

France's Historic Pronatalist Policies Work and Provide Lessons for Low Fertility in Spain, Italy, Portugal.

*France’s higher fertility is not because of immigrants
*Fertility is highest for women with stable partners
*Declines in marriage have led to declines in fertility
*Pronatalist policies have historic precedence, but must be tailored to each country

A new Institute for Family Studies report published today analyzes the plummeting fertility rates across southwestern Europe to provide clear evidence that France's historic, explicitly pronatalist policies explain the higher rates of fertility in that country compared to its neighbors.

The report, authored by Lyman Stone and Erin Wingerter, assesses where fertility in southern Europe is headed, what factors are driving its decline, and what can be done to reverse those declines. The findings contradict current belief that government policies cannot improve fertility outcomes.

French Premier Emmanuel Macron has called for new policies to stimulate “demographic rearmament,” Italian Prime Minister Meloni and Pope Francis have expressed the need to boost Italian fertility, while Spain’s fertility rates have hit historic lows, as Southern Europe grapples with a fertility crash.

By comparing Spain, Portugal, and Italy to France, a country with comparatively high fertility, several factors stand out:

• French fertility rose above its southern neighbors when France adopted a systematic pronatal policy with generous financial transfers, especially via France’s tax structure that greatly favors marriage and family formation.
   
• France’s pronatal policies undertaken between 1920 and 1950, and expanded in subsequent decades, have caused French fertility to remain durably elevated (0.1 to 0.3 more children per woman) throughout the last century. This has led to France’s population being several million people higher today than it otherwise would have been.
   
• The scale of the fertility gap between France and its neighbors is similar to the estimated effect size of many pronatal policies.
   
• French fertility is higher for both married and unmarried women, and is connected to higher fertility desires.
   
• French fertility is not driven by fertility among immigrants.
   
• French women are far more likely to live apart from their parents, and in stable partnerships than women in Spain, Portugal, or Italy.

The report suggests that governments who want to boost their population can make a difference if they are explicitly pronatalist, but notes there is no “one size fits all” approach.

READ:
Lyman Stone, Erin Wingerter, Is There Hope for Low Fertility? 'Demographic Rearmament' in Southern Europe, The Institute for Family Studies, May 2024.
https://ifstudies.org/reports/southern-europe-report/2024/executive-summary

ENDS. 

 Notes. 

1. The Institute for Family Studies is a think tank researching marriage, family life, and the well-being of children, based in Charlottesville, VA: ifstudies.org
2. Lyman Stone is a research fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, the director of research of the consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, and a PhD candidate at McGill University. His work has been covered in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Vox, and The Federalist, as well as numerous local outlets. He formerly worked as an international economist for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.
3. Erin Wingerter is a researcher at the Institute for Culture and Society at the University of Navarra. She has worked in higher education creating and fostering strategic institutional partnerships and mentoring students on career outcomes and international exchange. Her research explores the intersection of career aspirations and family priorities, fertility, and parenthood.
4. The authors of the report are available for interview. Contact chris@ifstudies.org