Fertility is a valid policy concern
October 7, 2026
North Carolina’s fertility rate is currently well below replacement level. Our population continues to grow because we’re importing people from other states and countries. Should policymakers care about this? I say yes.
There are several different ways of measuring fertility. A common one is the total fertility rate (TFR), defined as the average number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period. The TFR of the US and most other countries has certainly been on the decline in recent years, but the historical trends are more variable. After falling for most of the 19th and early 20th centuries, for example, fertility bounced back during the 1940s and 1950s (the so-called Baby Boom), fell again until the mid-1970s, recovered a bit during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, and has now fallen to record lows.
