Why Alabama Needs the Success Sequence

“The American Dream is beyond my reach.” This is increasingly the view that many young men and women take regarding the long-held belief that anyone can succeed in the United States. In fact, over half of young adults today believe the American Dream is no longer within their reach. What many of them do not know is that there is a reliable path to avoiding poverty and realizing this dream in today’s world.

That path is called the “Success Sequence.” The science tells us that young adults who take at least three steps have markedly higher odds of realizing the American Dream:

1. get at least a high school education 
2. work full time 
3. marry before having children

A stunning 97% of young adults who follow the Success Sequence escape poverty by their late 20s and early 30s, according to research by Wendy Wang and Brad Wilcox. Furthermore, 86% of young adults who follow all three steps reach the middle or upper class. The research also indicates that the Success Sequence applies to young adults across racial and economic lines. 

The Alabama Angle

This research could not be more relevant for the state of Alabama, where the American Dream is out of reach for too many men, women, and children. Alabama ranks fourth in the percentage of children living below the poverty level with 20.8% of children living in poverty.  The state also has the eighth-highest overall poverty rate in the nation. These poverty trends probably help explain why the state ranks in the bottom half in national surveys of hope and optimism. Alabama clearly has room for improvement when it comes to renewing the American Dream across the state. 

One reason the Yellowhammer State is below average on these indicators is that the family in Alabama is not as strong as it could be. For instance, Alabama ranks 45th on family stability (the share of teens raised in an intact family). This matters because states with higher levels of stability have better outcomes for children, such as higher educational attainment and more economic mobility, according to one recent report. Because of the importance of strong families for children, adults, and the state as a whole, we detail some measure that the state legislature can advance to renew the fortunes of the family across the state by teaching boys and girls the Success Sequence. 

The Status of the Success Sequence in Alabama

If adherence to the three steps of the Success Sequence—a high school degree, full-time work, and marriage—dramatically increases young adults' odds of realizing the American Dream, how are Alabama constituents currently performing in these three categories?

First, one must obtain at least a high school education. Alabama ranks above the national average with a high school graduation rate of 85%, due to successful efforts to encourage college and career readiness among the state’s teenagers.

Additionally, the Success Sequence prescribes that one must find full-time employment. Here, Alabama doesn’t do so well, ranking 47th on a measure of the Labor Force Participation Rate. For instance, only 79.4% of prime-aged men in the state are employed full time.¹ This means plenty of Alabama’s adults need to enter or more strongly engage the workforce. Part of the challenge here is that government programs penalize work for those in the lower-income brackets.²

Finally, the Success Sequence calls for marriage before having children. A shocking 45.3% of children in the state of Alabama were born to unmarried mothers in 2022. This puts Alabama 43rd in this metric. Just 20 years ago in 2005, this figure was 35.7 percent. It is sobering to learn  that so many children are born into an unmarried home, given that men, women, and children are more likely to thrive socially and economically when marriage grounds and guides their family life.

Harvard University economist Raj Chetty and his colleagues are famous for underlining the connection between economic mobility and family structure. In their 2014 study of the subject, they found that the strongest community-level predictor of the American dream for poor kids was the share of two-parent families in a community. In other words, poor children have a markedly higher chance of achieving economic mobility, going from poverty as children to riches as adults, if they grow up in places with a higher share of two-parent families. 

Share of Children under 18 Living in Single-Parent
Households, by Alabama County

Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation

In Alabama, this means that poor children in counties like Limestone and Shelby, where the vast majority of children are raised in two-parent homes, have a much better shot at realizing the American dream than children raised in counties like Wilcox and Perry, where a large share of children are growing up in single-parent families. These patterns indicate that children in the latter counties seem especially disconnected from the family stability that comes with following the Success Sequence.

The Costs of Neglecting the Success Sequence

We know the Success Sequence has real economic value for young adults and families, but it’s also valuable for the emotional and family well-being of young men and women today, according to research by Wendy Wang and Samuel Wilkinson.

Completing the three steps of the sequence leaves young people much less likely to experience high emotional distress (9% vs. 30%). Females are much more likely to experience this distress than males, regardless of the steps completed, but the gender gap is the largest for young people who have completed none of the steps (38% vs. 22%).

Furthermore, those who marry before having children are shown to have more stable families, which is linked to strong mental health. Among young people who follow the Success Sequence, an overwhelming “73% are in intact families (married and never divorced), compared with only 30% of those who had children before or outside of marriage.”

Advancing the Success Sequence in Alabama 

Clearly, the fortunes of Alabamians rise and fall with crucial foundational decisions made by young adults across the state, regardless of race or economic disadvantage. To further support young adults in their pursuit of happiness and the American Dream, and to ease the economic and social burden of poverty across Alabama, the state must educate the rising generation that they have agency when it comes to their economic, emotional, and family future. By presenting middle schoolers and high schoolers with the compelling data of the Success Sequence, they can make intentional decisions regarding their education, employment, marriage, and children. 

To be clear, the sequence is valuable for all Alabamians. A striking 96% of black Millennials and 97% of Hispanic Millennials who followed this sequence are not poor in their mid-thirties. The same is true for 94% of Millennials who were raised in lower-income families and 95% of those who did not grow up with both parents. Furthermore, a vast majority of black (80%), Hispanic (86%), and white (91%) young adults who follow all three steps reach the middle class or higher. Similar percentages are found for young adults from lower-income families (82%) and those from non-intact families (84%).

What’s more: the Success Sequence is broadly popular with Americans of all kinds. A study by Nat Malkus at the American Enterprise Institute suggests that 76% of American parents support the teaching of the success sequence in public schools, including 70% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans. It has support from adults across races as well, with 68% of black Americans and 74% of Hispanic Americans favoring the teaching of the sequence in schools. Even 72% of those who did not follow the three pillars themselves also support the education of the next generation on this subject. They know that their kids would benefit from following a path they were not able to pursue for themselves.

Renewing Families and the American Dream in Alabama

There is a tangible and attainable path to the American Dream. Students should hear this message as they approach the crucial, pivotal years in which they will make these three major decisions. Alabama could achieve this by incorporating the sequence into middle and high school curricula. It can be implemented through financial literacy standards, health, or family life education, as the Heritage Foundation noted in a recent report.

A 2023 report by the Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, on the national evaluation of programs including the Success Sequence, provides further guidance for the state. The report shows outcomes were better when both middle-school-age and high-school-age youth were in the same program, compared to just receiving this program in middle school. The consistency of the message throughout middle school and high school years is crucial.

Furthermore, Life That Counts, an Alabama-based nonprofit organization, has a broad reach and evidence-supported outcomes. Their school-based programming has effectively promoted the three milestones of the Success Sequence. An evaluation of the RELENTLESS program, implemented by Life That Counts in five high schools in Marion and Cleburne Counties, Alabama, and three high schools in Indiana, revealed significant results. The survey indicated that 77.47% of 9th-grade students planned to marry before having children, recognizing the impact on their plans. Notably, Alabama students demonstrated a 21-22% higher statistical difference in their responses compared to Indiana students, marking a significant step towards achieving the Success Sequence.

Middle school curricula should include this compelling research, goal setting, and positive relationship development. High school curricula should promote healthy relationship development and positive decision-making, strengthening academic and technical skills that will support operationalizing the Success Sequence. Combining the sequence with current Alabama minimum standards for sex education curricula or programs shows promise. Furthermore, the state should provide parents with this compelling research to support consistent messaging from parents to their children, and to facilitate parent-child communication about the value of education, work, and marriage with the rising generation of Alabamians.

While many of today’s young adults are sober about their prospects of flourishing in modern America, there is a path to achieving the American Dream. That path is the Success Sequence. We must do a better job of educating our children about this reality, both to give them hope for realizing that dream themselves and to offer them a roadmap for pursuing it.

Lucy Orr graduated from University of Virginia in December 2024 with majors in Economics and Statistics and is interning with the Institute for Family Studies. Brad Wilcox is Distinguished University Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia, Future of Freedom Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Connie Huber is Recognized University Professor of Public Health at the University of Cincinnati, Senior Curriculum Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, Adjunct with the School of Divinity at Liberty University, and a nationally recognized adolescent risk prevention curriculum subject matter expert.

1. IFS Analysis of IPUMS Current Population Survey.

2. Phil Gramm, The Myth of American Inequality (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2024).